{"id":1170,"date":"2025-06-02T03:05:19","date_gmt":"2025-06-01T19:05:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.db-hk.com\/?p=1170"},"modified":"2025-06-02T03:05:19","modified_gmt":"2025-06-01T19:05:19","slug":"%e7%81%b0%e5%ba%a6%e7%a0%94%e7%a9%b6%ef%bc%9a%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd%e5%a4%a7%e9%80%89%e5%af%b9%e5%8a%a0%e5%af%86%e8%b4%a7%e5%b8%81%e7%9a%84%e6%bd%9c%e5%9c%a8%e5%bd%b1%e5%93%8d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.fubairui.net\/?p=1170","title":{"rendered":"\u7070\u5ea6\u7814\u7a76\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u5bf9\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u5f71\u54cd"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>TL\uff1bDR<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bf9\u52a0\u5bc6\u884c\u4e1a\u4ea7\u751f\u91cd\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4e0b\u4e00\u4efb\u603b\u7edf\u548c\u56fd\u4f1a\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u901a\u8fc7\u4e13\u95e8\u9488\u5bf9\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u7acb\u6cd5\uff0c\u5e76\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u5f71\u54cd\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u7a0e\u6536\u548c\u652f\u51fa\u653f\u7b56\u505a\u51fa\u8c03\u6574\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u6c11\u8c03\u6570\u636e\u548c Polymarket \u7b49\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u9690\u542b\u8d54\u7387\u90fd\u663e\u793a\u9009\u4e3e\u7ade\u4e89\u975e\u5e38\u6fc0\u70c8\u3002\u622a\u81f3 10 \u6708 15 \u65e5\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u8868\u660e\u5171\u548c\u515a\u63a7\u5236\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u66f4\u5927\u3002\u9274\u4e8e\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u5728\u786e\u8ba4\u603b\u7edf\u4efb\u547d\u7684\u5173\u952e\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\uff08\u5982\u7f8e\u56fd\u8bc1\u5238\u4ea4\u6613\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08SEC\uff09\u548c\u5546\u54c1\u671f\u8d27\u4ea4\u6613\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08CFTC\uff09\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff09\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u63a7\u5236\u6743\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u4e0e\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u9ad8\u5ea6\u76f8\u5173\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u5728\u9009\u6c11\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u662f\u4e24\u515a\u5171\u540c\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u7684\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u6301\u6709\u7387\u7565\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5171\u548c\u515a\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e24\u515a\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u5747\u8868\u793a\u652f\u6301\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u521b\u65b0\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u65e0\u8bba\u54ea\u4e2a\u653f\u515a\u6267\u653f\uff0c\u5168\u9762\u7684\u4e24\u515a\u7acb\u6cd5\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u52a0\u5bc6\u884c\u4e1a\u957f\u671f\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u5c3d\u7ba1 2024 \u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u6d89\u53ca\u8bf8\u591a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f46\u52a0\u5bc6\u884c\u4e1a\u5df2\u6210\u529f\u5360\u636e\u4e86\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u9009\u6c11\u504f\u597d\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff1a\u5728\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\u6c11\u610f\uff08Harris Poll\uff09\u8c03\u67e5\u4ee3\u8868 Grayscale \u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u5168\u56fd\u6027\u8c03\u67e5\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u7ea6\u534a\u6570\u7f8e\u56fd\u9009\u6c11\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u6295\u7968\u7ed9\u5bf9\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u6559\u80b2 \/ \u4fe1\u606f\u66f4\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u3002\u9009\u6c11\u5bf9\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u5173\u6ce8\u5ea6\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\uff1a\u968f\u7740\u8be5\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u521b\u65b0\uff0c\u5168\u9762\u7684\u7acb\u6cd5\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u7d27\u8feb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0b\u9762\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u8003\u8651\u767d\u5bab\u548c\u56fd\u4f1a\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u9009\u4e3e\u60c5\u51b5\u53ca\u5176\u5bf9\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6bcf\u79cd\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u90fd\u4f1a\u62a5\u544a Polymarket \u7684\u9690\u542b\u8d54\u7387\u3002\u300cPolymarket \u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u533a\u5757\u94fe\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u91c7\u7528\u7387\u6025\u5267\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n<p>\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7ed3\u679c\u90fd\u5177\u6709\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff1a\u6c11\u8c03\u6570\u636e\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u90fd\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u7ade\u9009\u7ed3\u679c\u52bf\u5747\u529b\u654c\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u6743\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u8f6c\u53d8\uff08\u4ece\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u8f6c\u5411\u5171\u548c\u515a\uff09\uff0c\u9274\u4e8e\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u5728\u786e\u8ba4\u603b\u7edf\u4efb\u547d\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bf9\u52a0\u5bc6\u884c\u4e1a\u6709\u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u8f6c\u53d8\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u767d\u5bab<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Polymarket \u8d54\u7387\uff1a\u7279\u6717\u666e 57% \/ \u54c8\u91cc\u65af 43%\uff08\u622a\u81f3 2024 \u5e74 10 \u6708 15 \u65e5\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u7ed3\u679c\uff1a\u7279\u6717\u666e\u80dc\u9009\u53ef\u80fd\u610f\u5473\u7740\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u5c06\u66f4\u52a0\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u9884\u7b97\u8d64\u5b57\u4e5f\u5c06\u6269\u5927\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u8005\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u4e3a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u548c\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u5e26\u6765\u5229\u597d\u3002\u4f46\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u8ba1\u5212\u9700\u8981\u56fd\u4f1a\u7684\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u800c\u5173\u7a0e\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0b\u4e00\u4efb\u603b\u7edf\u5c06\u5236\u5b9a\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u8bae\u7a0b\uff0c\u63d0\u540d\u4e3b\u8981\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\uff0c\u5e76\u63a8\u52a8\u7a0e\u6536\u3001\u652f\u51fa\u548c\u5173\u7a0e\u7b49\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u51b3\u7b56\u3002\u524d\u603b\u7edf\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5bf9\u6570\u5b57\u8d44\u4ea7\u884c\u4e1a\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u6781\u5927\u7684\u70ed\u60c5\uff0c\u4ed6\u58f0\u79f0\u8981\u5c06\u7f8e\u56fd\u6253\u9020\u6210\u300c\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u548c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4e4b\u90fd\u300d \u3002\u4ed6\u8fd8\u5ba3\u5e03\u5c06\u63a8\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u540d\u4e3a World Liberty Financial \u7684\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u501f\u8d37\u5e73\u53f0\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8be5\u9879\u76ee\u7ec6\u8282\u6709\u5f85\u62ab\u9732\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\u526f\u603b\u7edf\u6700\u8fd1\u5bf9\u6570\u5b57\u8d44\u4ea7\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u652f\u6301\u6027\u8a00\u8bba\uff0c\u5979\u89e3\u91ca\u8bf4\uff0c\u5979\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u5c06\u300c\u9f13\u52b1\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u548c\u6570\u5b57\u8d44\u4ea7\u7b49\u521b\u65b0\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4fdd\u62a4\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u300d\u3002\u636e\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u5979\u7684\u7ade\u9009\u56e2\u961f\u8fd8\u5c06\u5ba3\u5e03\u4fdd\u62a4\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u5e76\u5236\u5b9a\u300c\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u6570\u5b57\u8d44\u4ea7\u89c4\u5219\u8ba1\u5212\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\u7ade\u9009\u56e2\u961f\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u7ec6\u8282\u8f83\u5c11\uff0c\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u52a0\u5bc6\u884c\u4e1a\u67d0\u4e9b\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u548c\u8bc4\u8bba\u5458\u6240\u89c1\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u62dc\u767b \/ \u54c8\u91cc\u65af\u653f\u5e9c\u5bf9\u884c\u4e1a\u76d1\u7763\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u5bf9\u6297\u6027\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u63d0\u8d77\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u8bc9\u8bbc\u3001\u9650\u5236\u4f20\u7edf\u94f6\u884c\u670d\u52a1\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u4ee5\u53ca\u5426\u51b3\u4e24\u515a\u7acb\u6cd5\u7b49\u3002[6]\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u63d0\u540d\u652f\u6301\u52a0\u5bc6\u884c\u4e1a\u521b\u65b0\u7684\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u524d\u666f\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4e0b\u4e00\u5c4a\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u653f\u7b56\u9009\u62e9\uff08\u6709\u5173\u8be6\u7ec6\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u8bf7\u53c2\u9605\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u548c\u62dc\u767b\u4e0e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u653f\u7b56\u95ee\u9898\uff09\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u5206\u6790\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u548c\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u63d0\u6848\u90fd\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u9884\u7b97\u8d64\u5b57\u2014\u2014\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8054\u90a6\u8d64\u5b57\u5df2\u7ecf\u76f8\u5f53\u5927\u3002\u5728\u7eb3\u5165\u7ade\u9009\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u65e2\u5b9a\u8ba1\u5212\u524d\uff0c\u56fd\u4f1a\u9884\u7b97\u529e\u516c\u5ba4 (CBO) \u9884\u8ba1\u672a\u6765 10 \u5e74\u8054\u90a6\u8d64\u5b57\u5c06\u5e73\u5747\u5360 GDP \u7684 6.2%\u3002\u6839\u636e\u5bbe\u5915\u6cd5\u5c3c\u4e9a\u6c83\u987f\u5546\u5b66\u9662\u9884\u7b97\u6a21\u578b (Penn Wharton Budget Model\uff0cPWBM)\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\u6253\u7b97\u5c06\u4f01\u4e1a\u7a0e\u7387\u63d0\u9ad8\u5230 28%\uff0c\u4f46\u5979\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6269\u5927\u513f\u7ae5\u7a0e\u6536\u62b5\u514d\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u6539\u9769\u63d0\u8bae\u5c06\u4f7f 10 \u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u9884\u7b97\u8d64\u5b57\u5360 GDP \u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u589e\u81f3 6.5%\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0cPWBM \u5206\u6790\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u524d\u603b\u7edf\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5ef6\u957f 2017 \u5e74\u51cf\u7a0e\u548c\u964d\u4f4e\u5176\u4ed6\u7a0e\u7387\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u5c06\u4f7f 10 \u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u9884\u7b97\u8d64\u5b57\u5360 GDP \u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u589e\u81f3 7.8%\uff08\u56fe\u8868 1\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Grayscale Research \u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u6761\u4ef6\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e2d\u671f\u5185\u5de8\u989d\u9884\u7b97\u8d64\u5b57\u5c06\u5bf9\u7f8e\u5143\u4ea7\u751f\u8d1f\u9762\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u800c\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ea7\u751f\u6b63\u9762\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.web3sj.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/25685-1729053840270.jpg\" alt=\"\u7070\u5ea6\u7814\u7a76\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u5bf9\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u5f71\u54cd\" \/><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"j-lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.web3sj.com\/wp-content\/themes\/justnews\/themer\/assets\/images\/lazy.png\" data-original=\"https:\/\/www.web3sj.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/25685-1729053840270.jpg\" alt=\"\u7070\u5ea6\u7814\u7a76\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u5bf9\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u5f71\u54cd\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>\u56fe\u8868 1\uff1a\u4e24\u4f4d\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u5747\u672a\u8ba1\u5212\u7f29\u51cf\u8054\u90a6\u8d64\u5b57<\/p>\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5f71\u54cd\u5c1a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u53d8\u5316\u5fc5\u987b\u7ecf\u8fc7\u56fd\u4f1a\u6279\u51c6\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5c1a\u4e0d\u6e05\u695a\u54ea\u4e9b\u7ade\u9009\u63d0\u6848\u53ef\u4ee5\u6210\u4e3a\u6cd5\u5f8b\u2014\u2014\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u653f\u5e9c\u5206\u6b67\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u524d\u603b\u7edf\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8fd8\u6253\u7b97\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u9ad8\u5173\u7a0e\u3002\u5173\u7a0e\u4e0a\u8c03\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u63d0\u9ad8\u7f8e\u5143\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u5e76\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u9020\u6210\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u91c7\u53d6\u62a5\u590d\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u3002[11]\u867d\u7136\u5173\u7a0e\u4e0d\u4f1a\u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\uff0c\u4f46\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d44\u4ea7\u4f30\u503c\u4e0e\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u56e0\u7d20\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5173\u7a0e\u4e0a\u8c03\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u7ed9\u4ef7\u683c\u5e26\u6765\u4e0b\u884c\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u53c2\u8bae\u9662<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Polymarket \u8d54\u7387\uff1a\u5171\u548c\u515a\u63a7\u5236\u7387 78% \/ \u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u63a7\u5236\u7387 22%<\/p>\n<p>\u7ed3\u679c\uff1a\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e24\u515a\u6210\u5458\u90fd\u8868\u793a\u652f\u6301\u52a0\u5bc6\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u5728\u786e\u8ba4\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u4efb\u547d\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5171\u548c\u515a\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4e3a\u52a0\u5bc6\u884c\u4e1a\u5e26\u6765\u66f4\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u4e0e\u4f17\u8bae\u9662\u4e00\u8d77\u8d1f\u8d23\u901a\u8fc7\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u53d8\u66f4[12]\u4ee5\u53ca\u9488\u5bf9\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u7acb\u6cd5\u3002\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u8fd8\u8d1f\u8d23\u786e\u8ba4\u603b\u7edf\u4efb\u547d\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u7f8e\u56fd\u8bc1\u5238\u4ea4\u6613\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a (SEC)\u3001\u5546\u54c1\u671f\u8d27\u4ea4\u6613\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a (CFTC) \u548c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u7684\u4efb\u547d\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u8bb8\u591a\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u76d1\u7ba1\u72b6\u51b5\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\uff0c\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u5bf9\u673a\u6784\u4efb\u547d\u7684\u76d1\u7763\u5bf9\u8be5\u884c\u4e1a\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u672c\u5c4a\u56fd\u4f1a\u5ba1\u8bae\u7684\u52a0\u5bc6\u7acb\u6cd5\u662f\u4e24\u515a\u5171\u540c\u53c2\u4e0e\u7684\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u519c\u4e1a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u7684\u300a\u6570\u5b57\u5546\u54c1\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\u548c\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u94f6\u884c\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e01\u7acb\u6cd5\u3002 [13]\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5171\u548c\u515a\u53c2\u8bae\u5458\u66f4\u52a0\u652f\u6301\u52a0\u5bc6\u884c\u4e1a\u3002 \u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u52a0\u5bc6\u884c\u4e1a\u6e38\u8bf4\u7ec4\u7ec7 Stand With Crypto [14]\u5728\u52a0\u5bc6\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u7ed9 49 \u540d\u5171\u548c\u515a\u53c2\u8bae\u5458\u4e2d\u7684 39 \u4eba\u6253\u4e86\u201cA\u201d\uff0c\u800c 51 \u4f4d\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u53c2\u8bae\u5458\u4e2d\u53ea\u6709 6 \u4f4d\u6253\u4e86 \u201cA \u201d\u3002[15]\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u6295\u7968\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e5f\u8868\u660e\u5171\u548c\u515a\u66f4\u652f\u6301\u52a0\u5bc6\u884c\u4e1a\uff1a\u5728\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u6295\u7968\u5e9f\u9664 SEC \u5458\u5de5\u4f1a\u8ba1\u516c\u544a (SAB) 121 [16]\u65f6\uff0c48 \u540d\u5171\u548c\u515a\u4eba\u6295\u4e86\u8d5e\u6210\u7968\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u4eba\u7684\u8d5e\u6210\u7968\u7684\u4ec5\u6709 12 \u5f20\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u76ee\u524d\u63a7\u5236\u7740\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u62c5\u4efb\u7740\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2d\u3001\u786e\u5b9a\u7acb\u6cd5\u4f18\u5148\u4e8b\u9879\uff0c\u5e76\u6700\u7ec8\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e9b\u603b\u7edf\u4efb\u547d\u62e5\u6709\u51b3\u5b9a\u6027\u6295\u7968\u6743\u3002\u9274\u4e8e\u5171\u548c\u515a\u4eba\u901a\u5e38\u66f4\u652f\u6301\u52a0\u5bc6\u521b\u65b0\uff0cGrayscale Research \u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u63a7\u5236\u6743\u7684\u53d8\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u52a0\u5bc6\u5e02\u573a\u4ea7\u751f\u79ef\u6781\u5f71\u54cd\u2014\u2014 \u540c\u65f6\u9274\u4e8e\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u76d1\u7763\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u662f\u8be5\u884c\u4e1a\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4f17\u8bae\u9662<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Polymarket \u8d54\u7387\uff1a\u5171\u548c\u515a\u63a7\u5236\u7387 44% \/ \u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u63a7\u5236\u7387 56%<\/p>\n<p><em>\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\uff1a\u4f17\u8bae\u9662\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u6743\u5bf9\u4e8e\u786e\u5b9a\u653f\u5e9c\u662f\u7edf\u4e00\u8fd8\u662f\u5206\u88c2\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e0b\u4e00\u4efb\u603b\u7edf\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u591f\u5b9e\u73b0\u5176\u65e2\u5b9a\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4ea7\u751f\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u4e0e\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u53d8\u5316\u6216\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u4e13\u9879\u7acb\u6cd5\u7684\u901a\u8fc7\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u4f17\u8bae\u9662\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002\u672c\u5c4a\u56fd\u4f1a\u5ba1\u8bae\u7684\u7acb\u6cd5\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u4e24\u515a\u7684\u4e00\u81f4\u8ba4\u53ef\uff0c\u4f46\u5171\u548c\u515a\u7684\u652f\u6301\u5ea6\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4f17\u8bae\u9662\u91d1\u878d\u670d\u52a1\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u7684 FIT21 [17]\u6cd5\u6848\uff0c208 \u540d\u5171\u548c\u515a\u4eba\u6295\u4e86\u8d5e\u6210\u7968\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u4eba\u8d5e\u6210\u7968\u4ec5\u6709 71 \u5f20\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u524d\u8bae\u957f Pelosi \u548c\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u6267\u884c\u5b98 Clark\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f17\u8bae\u9662\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u6743\u5c06\u51b3\u5b9a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\u548c\u7acb\u6cd5\u4f18\u5148\u4e8b\u9879\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bf9\u52a0\u5bc6\u653f\u7b56\u4ea7\u751f\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4f46\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u662f\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u653f\u515a\u662f\u5426\u540c\u65f6\u63a7\u5236\u767d\u5bab\u548c\u53c2\u4f17\u4e24\u9662\u2014\u2014\u300c\u7edf\u4e00\u653f\u5e9c\u300d\uff1b\u8fd8\u662f\u63a7\u5236\u6743\u88ab\u4e24\u515a\u5206\u5272\u2014\u2014\u300c\u5206\u88c2\u653f\u5e9c\u300d\u3002\u5728\u5206\u88c2\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0b\uff0c\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u53ef\u80fd\u96be\u4ee5\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u516b\u79cd\u60c5\u666f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\uff0c\u6709\u4e09\u4e2a\u673a\u6784\uff08\u767d\u5bab\u3001\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u548c\u4f17\u8bae\u9662\uff09\u53c2\u4e0e\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u673a\u6784\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff08\u5171\u548c\u515a\u6216\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u63a7\u5236\uff09\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6709\u516b\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u6bcf\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u5bf9\u52a0\u5bc6\u884c\u4e1a\u90fd\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u56fe 2 \u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86 Polymarket \u9488\u5bf9\u6bcf\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u9690\u542b\u8d54\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.web3sj.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/25685-1729053905863.jpg\" alt=\"\u7070\u5ea6\u7814\u7a76\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u5bf9\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u5f71\u54cd\" \/><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"j-lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.web3sj.com\/wp-content\/themes\/justnews\/themer\/assets\/images\/lazy.png\" data-original=\"https:\/\/www.web3sj.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/25685-1729053905863.jpg\" alt=\"\u7070\u5ea6\u7814\u7a76\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u5bf9\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u5f71\u54cd\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>\u56fe 2\uff1a\u6839\u636e\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u9009\u4e3e\u5177\u6709\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027<\/p>\n<p>Grayscale Research \u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u51e0\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u70b9\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5728\u56db\u79cd\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e2d\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u660e\u663e\u5360\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u2014\u2014\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u9009\u4e3e\u540e\u7684\u6743\u529b\u5e73\u8861\u4ecd\u7136\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u89c2\u5bdf\u4eba\u58eb\u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u62e5\u6709\u7edf\u4e00\u8fd8\u662f\u5206\u88c2\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u5b58\u5728\u5206\u6b67\uff1a\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u6216\u5171\u548c\u515a\u6a2a\u626b\u5927\u9009\u7684\u7efc\u5408\u51e0\u7387\u4ecd\u7136\u63a5\u8fd1 50%\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u6839\u636e Polymarket 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\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u5168\u56fd\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u81ea\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u4eba\u7684\u4eba\u58eb\u4e2d\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u6301\u6709\u7387\u548c\u5bf9\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u719f\u6089\u7a0b\u5ea6\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5171\u548c\u515a\u4eba\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u4eba\u4eca\u5e74\u5bf9\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u5174\u8da3\u666e\u904d\u589e\u52a0\u3002[18]\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u65b0\u7684\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u7acb\u6cd5\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u5728\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u83b7\u5f97\u7edd\u5bf9\u591a\u6570\uff0c\u8fd9\u9700\u8981\u4e24\u515a\u5171\u540c\u652f\u6301\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u9274\u4e8e\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u5728\u786e\u8ba4\u603b\u7edf\u4efb\u547d\u7684\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u4eba\u9009\u65b9\u9762\u53d1\u6325\u7740\u5173\u952e\u4f5c\u7528\uff0cGrayscale Research 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\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u5bf9\u52a0\u5bc6\u884c\u4e1a\u957f\u671f\u53d1\u5c55\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6700\u597d\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5c06\u662f\u4e24\u515a\u7ee7\u7eed\u52aa\u529b\u5236\u5b9a\u66f4\u5168\u9762\u7684\u7acb\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u65b9\u6cd5<\/p>\n<p>\u8be5\u8c03\u67e5\u7531\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u516c\u53f8\u4ee3\u8868\u7070\u5ea6\u901a\u8fc7\u5176 Harris On Demand \u7efc\u5408\u4ea7\u54c1\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5883\u5185\u5728\u7ebf\u8fdb\u884c\uff0c\u8c03\u67e5\u65f6\u95f4\u4e3a 2024 \u5e74 9 \u6708 4 \u65e5\u81f3 6 \u65e5\uff0c\u8c03\u67e5\u5bf9\u8c61\u4e3a 1,841 \u540d\u8ba1\u5212\u53c2\u52a0 2024 \u5e74\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\u6295\u7968\u7684\u6210\u5e74\u4eba\uff0818 \u5c81\u53ca\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff09\u3002\u6570\u636e\u6839\u636e\u9700\u8981\u6309\u5e74\u9f84\u3001\u6027\u522b\u3001\u79cd\u65cf \/ 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[&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1170","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.fubairui.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1170","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.fubairui.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.fubairui.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.fubairui.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.fubairui.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1170"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/www.fubairui.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1170\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2824,"href":"http:\/\/www.fubairui.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1170\/revisions\/2824"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.fubairui.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1170"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.fubairui.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1170"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.fubairui.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1170"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}